Dr. Ekniti reveals that private investment grew at its highest rate in 11 years in Q2/69, reflecting Thailand's entry into the New Economy.
Dr. Ekniti revealed that GDP in the second quarter of 2026 expanded by 1.9%, a slowdown due to the energy crisis. He pointed to positive signs as private investment surged to its highest level in 11 years, a result of the BOI's Thailand Fast Pass program, reflecting Thailand's shift towards becoming part of the New Economy.
Aug 17, 2569 Dr. Ekniti Nitithanpraphat, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Dr. Ekniti Nitithanprapas revealed via Facebook that... A Look at the Thai Economy Through GDP Figures: Where Does the Thai Economy Stand and Where Is It Going Next? (Part 1)
While traveling with the Prime Minister on an official visit to Australia and New Zealand today. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) announced that Thailand's economic growth rate in the second quarter of 2026 was 1.9 percent, a slowdown from 2.8 percent in the first quarter. These figures are close to what the Ministry of Finance had previously predicted. They confirm and reflect the facts that I and my economic team had forecast, as follows:
1) The impact of the Middle East conflict, which began in late March, started to have ripple effects in the second quarter, from the oil crisis to a rising cost of living. This is evident in the inflation rate in the second quarter, which surged to 2.7% from a negative -0.5% in the first quarter. This increased cost of living led to a slowdown in private consumption growth in the second quarter, to 1.9% from 3.3% in the first quarter.
If we cannot stop this cycle, it will lead to a food crisis and another wave of economic contraction. This is why the government needed to issue the Emergency Decree on Borrowing, which is the source of funds used in the current "Thai Help Thai Plus" project to support purchasing power and the cost of living for the people. Whether or not to continue the project in the last quarter of the year will depend on the results of the first phase, which will end in the third quarter, and the remaining budget, in order to maximize benefits for the country.
2) Another clear indicator from the second quarter is Thailand's high dependence on energy imports from abroad. This resulted in a current account deficit of US$1.76 billion (approximately 600 billion baht) in the second quarter, compared to a surplus of approximately US$1.4 billion in the first quarter.
Therefore, accelerating the energy transition from imported fossil fuels to clean energy is crucial.
I would like to clarify that the 2 billion baht energy transition project, encompassing solar rooftops, power grid systems, energy storage systems, and electric vehicles, is an investment in the country's "future infrastructure." This borrowing is for asset creation and long-term national risk reduction, not for temporary spending. The funds are intended to help the country produce and manage energy more efficiently, reduce fuel imports, mitigate costs associated with global energy price volatility, and create a foundation for new private sector investment.
The conflict in Iran marks a turning point and a warning sign that Thailand cannot wait for a continuous energy price crisis before addressing the problem. Conflicts in the Middle East can directly impact energy costs, transportation, commodity prices, and the cost of living for Thai citizens. Therefore, the government needs to urgently invest in reducing the country's vulnerability to reliance on imported fuels and global oil and gas prices as much as possible within limited time and budget. This aligns with the Ministry of Energy's Power Development Plan (PDP) to increase energy production and utilization of clean energy.
3) The star performer of this quarter is clearly the private sector investment, which expanded by 13.4 percent in the second quarter. This is the highest growth rate in 11 years and marks the first consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, following the 10.1 percent expansion in the first quarter. This is partly due to the BOI's Thailand Fast Pass project, which resulted in actual private sector investment reaching 2.55 billion baht in the second quarter.
The majority of investment is in S-Curve industries such as electronics, AI, clean energy, and agricultural processing. Furthermore, exports of goods and services continued to expand, rising from 12.1% in Q1 to 12.5% in Q2. The main export products are electronics, which aligns with global market demand and, importantly, clearly reflects the trend of investment in new industries in Thailand.
Therefore, from an international perspective, Thailand is ranked as one of the rising stars among emerging nations capable of seizing opportunities from this global 'new industrial revolution.' This is extremely important. The question isn't whether we should simply follow the new industries; a more crucial question is how we can truly seize the opportunity to become a global supply chain, facilitating domestic industries. This would be a significant turning point for the Thai economy.
Based on the details and figures, I would like to inform you that... The Thai economy has moved into the global New Economy. Relevant government agencies are adjusting their methodologies to align with the new global industrial landscape. Going forward, we will certainly see a clearer picture of the Thai economy's progress.
Although the GDP figures for this quarter are not yet to our liking, they confirm that our forecasts and economic support measures are on the right track.
"Regarding the question of where Thailand's economy stands, we are currently in a period where the government is accelerating efforts to 'nurture the economy through a transition to enable it to grow to its full potential.' We are seeing signs of growth from new economic engines in the second quarter. I will continue writing in Part 2 about the future direction of the Thai economy, particularly the restructuring and economic recovery plans that are being implemented in the short, medium, and long term, and how they will benefit SMEs and all sectors."
Reference : Facebook : Dr. Ekniti Nitithanprapas
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