The value of the baht opened this morning at 32.69 baht/dollar.

The Thai baht opened this morning at 32.69 baht per dollar, remaining stable and unchanged from the previous day's closing level.

On August 25, 2569, Mr. Poon Panichpibul, a money and capital market strategist at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krungthai Bank, revealed that the Thai baht opened this morning at 32.69 baht per dollar, remaining stable and unchanged from the previous day's closing level.

Since overnight, the Thai baht (USDTHB) has been moving sideways (fluctuating between 32.65-32.73 baht per dollar) as market participants await new developments, particularly statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole Symposium. This has also caused the US dollar to move sideways. Furthermore, hopes for renewed negotiations between the US and Iran are also weighing on the exchange rate.

This includes the recent US sanctions on Iran, which were not as severe as the market feared, helping to slow the rise in crude oil prices (although overall Brent crude prices remain volatile around $90 per barrel). It also helped to alleviate some concerns about inflation and contributed to a slowdown in the rise of long-term bond yields, positively impacting gold prices (XAUUSD), which are currently trading around $4,685 per ounce.

Regarding the trends in the Thai baht (USDTHB) exchange rate.

We maintain our view that the Thai baht faces two-way risk in the short term, depending on changes in market players' views on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. This will depend on developments in US economic data and the highly uncertain situation in the Middle East. Therefore, market players should employ a more diversified hedging strategy, especially options strategies, which can significantly enhance currency risk management in this highly uncertain market environment.

During the day, we expect the Thai baht to remain in a sideways range, with key resistance around 33.00 baht per dollar and support around 32.50 baht per dollar (with the next support level at 32.30 baht per dollar). This is because market players may not rush to significantly adjust their positions until new factors are factored in, such as the US PCE inflation rate and the highlight this week: the statement by FED Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Furthermore, we reiterate our previous view that a sustained appreciation of the Thai baht may not be easily achieved until the market adjusts its perspective that the FED may keep interest rates unchanged this year (currently, the market remains over 100% confident that the FED may raise interest rates once this year) and the situation in the Middle East gradually eases.

Throughout the day, the Thai baht may fluctuate in line with gold prices, as gold transaction flows have had a significant impact on the baht recently. Furthermore, the baht may face some pressure from selling of Thai assets by foreign investors. However, a slight weakening of the baht is also possible.

Given the prevailing pressures, we believe the baht's depreciation may remain limited around resistance levels. The baht could clearly weaken further if the situation in the Middle East escalates or if US economic data comes out better than expected (higher than inflation expectations), leading market participants to believe the FED may need to raise interest rates significantly.

Looking at the baht's range in the 24 hours, it is expected to be at 32.55-32.80 baht/dollar.

Other market views

US stock market participants remain hesitant to take on additional risk, awaiting new factors, particularly statements from the Federal Reserve Chair at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Furthermore, market participants are opting to reduce their exposure to AI/semiconductor stocks ahead of Nvidia's earnings report. The US stock market fell 2.9% in the after-close on Wednesday, August 26th.

However, the U.S. stock market received some support from gains in consumer goods, retail, and financial stocks. Overall, the Dow Jones index rose +0.26%, while the S&P 500 closed down -0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite fell -0.76%.

On the European stock market side, the STOXX 600 index rebounded slightly, remaining virtually unchanged. European stocks faced some pressure from declines in energy stocks, following a slight drop in energy prices, as well as selling pressure on AI/semiconductor stocks, similar to the US market. However, European stocks received some support from gains in mining stocks, following the upward trend in metal prices, such as gold. Financial and consumer goods stocks in Europe also rose, mirroring the US market.

In the bond market, the 10-year US Treasury yield edged slightly back to 4.70% as market participants became more optimistic about the prospects of negotiations between the US and Iran, leading to a decrease in energy prices. However, the decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield remains limited by concerns about the US fiscal position, as well as the issue of large numbers of AI companies issuing bonds, reducing interest in long-term bonds.

In the short term, we believe that the 10-year US Treasury yield may move sideways as market participants await further developments. However, market players can use any opportunity to gradually buy 10-year US Treasury yields above the 4.70% zone again.

We maintain our previous recommendation that market players can gradually purchase long-term US (and Thai) bonds, as we retain our view that the FED is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026 before gradually cutting rates twice in 2027 (Q2 and Q4). As for the Bank of Thailand (BOT), it may keep interest rates unchanged throughout this year and next.

However, we may need to revise our view on the FED's interest rate outlook if the situation in the Middle East escalates significantly, leading to energy prices remaining high (crude oil prices exceeding or around $100 per barrel) for longer than expected.

In the currency market , the dollar moved sideways as market participants remained cautious, awaiting the release of the US PCE inflation report and the Federal Reserve Chair's statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Overall, the dollar index (DXY) continued to fluctuate around 99 points (specifically between 98.9 and 99.1 points).

Regarding gold prices, hopes for a resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran, along with a slight dip in 10-year US Treasury yields and the dollar, have helped to support gold prices (COMEX gold futures for December 2026 delivery) around $4,740 per ounce. However, further upward movement in gold prices may be slowed as market participants await further developments.

For the next 24 hours

Market participants will be watching for the August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index report (focusing on data regarding the U.S. labor market, such as the Labor Market Differential comparing plentiful jobs to hard-to-get jobs), Fed sector indices like the Richmond FED manufacturing and services indices, and housing market data such as July new home sales. Simultaneously, market participants will be awaiting statements from Fed officials.

On the European side, market players will be eagerly awaiting the release of Germany's IFO Business Climate index for August.

In addition to the factors mentioned above, market participants will be monitoring developments in the Middle East, where signs of renewed negotiations between the US and Iran are emerging. However, overall, the situation remains highly uncertain. Simultaneously, market participants will be awaiting earnings reports from listed companies and movements in AI/Semiconductor themed stocks, which could create volatility in financial markets.

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