The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has revised its GDP growth target for 69 to 2.5%, warning of a K-Shape economic crisis where large corporations and foreign investors are experiencing strong growth but Thai SMEs are suffering severely.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has revised its GDP growth target for 2026 to 2.5%, while warning of a K-Shape crisis – strong foreign growth but declining Thai SMEs. The JSCCIB highlights the need to accelerate economic reforms and drive new growth engines to revive SMEs and the Thai economy at the Bangkok Business Summit 69.

On September 2, 2026, Mr. Payong Srivanich, Chairman of the Thai Bankers Association and Chairman of the Joint Committee of the Three Private Sector Institutions (JCC), revealed that the escalating conflict in the Middle East is increasing pressure on global energy prices and creating volatility in financial markets.

Most recently, as of early September 69, the global crude oil price rose to US$95 per barrel (from US$84 per barrel in July), amidst continuously declining global oil reserves. Simultaneously, restrictions on diesel exports have resulted in higher levels of refined oil in inventories, forcing refineries to reduce production capacity. This has impacted refining costs and the availability of by-products such as naphtha, benzene, toluene, and para-xylene, which are crucial raw materials for the petrochemical, plastics, rubber, chemical, automotive, and packaging industries.

Therefore, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) proposes that the government urgently consider relaxing restrictions to allow oil exports under free trade mechanisms, as well as joint management of the situation between the public and private sectors, as previously proposed by the JSCCIB. This will be a key approach to balancing production, reducing the impact on the refining sector, and maintaining the continuity of the Thai industrial supply chain.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) recognizes the importance of upgrading the country's industrial data to better understand the K-shaped growth of the Thai economy. The JSCCIB has been continuously monitoring the K-shaped economic growth of Thailand since June 69, delving into data on exports, production, and financial statements of the business sector, examining aspects by industry, nationality, and business size.

The study found that the upper leg of K is concentrated in New Economy businesses that benefit from digitalization and AI, such as computers and semiconductors, mostly comprised of Chinese, US, and Singaporean companies. Meanwhile, the lower leg of K consists of businesses facing intense competition from foreign products, such as automotive, petroleum, and construction materials.

“Over the past five years, Thai SMEs in the lower K-sector, operating in seven industries under the “Reinvent Thailand” initiative, have experienced an average 8% decrease in production, while foreign-owned businesses, particularly Japanese ones, have seen a significant decline of up to 19%. This disparity means that simply looking at overall economic figures may not be sufficient.”

Furthermore, the importance of data is further reinforced through the upgrading of indicators in three dimensions : coverage, data quality, and reflection of the changing economic structure. This is achieved by linking data from various agencies, such as the Office of Industrial Economics, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), and the Social Security Office, in order to bring about urgent structural reforms.

"The Thai economy in 69 is projected to grow better than previously estimated, driven by stronger-than-expected export and private sector investment growth. The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has revised its export forecast upwards to 12%-16% from the previous 8%-10%, and its GDP forecast to 2.1%-2.5% from the previous 1.6%-2.0%."

However, the impetus from exports and private investment to the domestic economy has clearly diminished. In the past, export growth averaging around 14% and investment growth of 10% correlated with GDP expansion averaging around 6-7%. This reflects Thailand's reduced domestic value capture due to its high dependence on import content.

While the new wave of investment is creating limited jobs compared to the past, Thailand needs to maintain its presence on the global investment radar but must accelerate the development of its full potential. For example, in the data center sector, every 100 MW of investment represents over 6 billion baht. It is crucial to create an ecosystem that connects upstream to downstream (vertical integration), such as expanding investment in PCBs approved by the BOI, investing in clean energy and water infrastructure, upgrading the industrial sector to smart manufacturing, and preparing human resources.

With the participation of academic institutions and the full utilization of data to upgrade emerging industries such as the creative economy, in order to create a real impact on the domestic economy, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has appointed a Data Center working group to help drive this business to maximize benefits for Thailand.

“Thailand needs to urgently reinvent its economy to unlock structural constraints and adapt to opportunities arising from a major shift in global supply chains. This will build trust and confidence and attract a new wave of investment. This is the impetus behind “The Bangkok Business Summit 2026: Reinvent Thailand, Resilient ASEAN,” which the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) and its partners from various sectors are ready to host on September 3, 2569, at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center.”

This event will serve as a platform to unite the government, private sector, and international organizations to jointly drive concrete results in Thai economic reform. Discussions will focus on the country's new growth engines, enhancing competitiveness, attracting investment in future industries, developing infrastructure and energy, transitioning to a low-carbon economy, and building a resilient and adaptable ASEAN economy and region, positively impacting supply chains, SMEs, and community economies.

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