Globlex Securities forecasts the Thai stock market to trade within the range of 1,550 – 1,620 points in September 69, anticipating volatility driven by the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices.

Globlex Securities forecasts that the Thai stock market will remain volatile in September 2569, with the index expected to range between 1,550 and 1,620 points. This is due to pressure from rising WTI oil prices driven by tensions in the Middle East, which could fuel inflation and support a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Globlex recommends investing in stocks that benefit from government subsidies for solar roofs.

3 September 2569 – Ms. Wilawanee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director, Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. or GBS The outlook for the Thai stock market in September 2569 indicates a volatile trend, with the index projected to trade within a range of 1,550 – 1,620 points. This is primarily pressured by the WTI crude oil price, which experienced sideways-up movements in August, climbing from 74-75 dollars per barrel to close at 90 dollars per barrel in early September due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production cuts.

This could lead to increased inflationary pressures, causing investors to worry that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is continuing its tight monetary policy. Following its latest meeting, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep interest rates at 3.50% – 3.75%, with three members voting against raising rates to control inflation. Recently, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a readiness to raise interest rates if US inflation does not fall to its 2% target quickly enough.

Furthermore, the market faced negative factors from the new tariff measures announced by President Donald Trump, imposing new customs duties under Section 301 on 60 trading partners. Thailand was included in the group subject to the highest tariff rate of 12.5%, along with China and Vietnam. Other contributing factors included the Bank of Thailand's Q2 2569 economic report, which indicated a "bottom out" of the year, and concerns that investment in AI infrastructure might take a long time to generate returns.

However, the Thai stock market also received positive support from exports in July, which expanded strongly by 21.6% YoY, totaling US$34,789.1 million. This marks the 25th consecutive month of growth, driven by demand for AI technology products, data center infrastructure, and the rebound in key agricultural products. As a result, exports for the first seven months (January-July) grew by an overall 18.2% YoY. At the same time, international markets are easing concerns about the AI ​​bubble after stronger-than-expected financial results and revenue forecasts from major technology companies, led by Nvidia.

Furthermore, the tourism sector was boosted by the cumulative number of foreign tourists reaching 20.6 million, generating cumulative revenue of 980,000 billion baht. This was combined with the stimulus from the "Thai Travel Thai Plus 2569" project, a co-payment measure subsidizing 50% of accommodation costs up to 3,000 baht per person, providing a 500 baht digital coupon, and with registration for 1,000,000 vouchers opening on October 1st for travel starting in December 2569.

Key issues to watch this September include: There are both. Domestic factors เช่น

• The Bank of Thailand's business confidence report (September 1).
• The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) meeting (September 2nd) and the Bangkok Business Summit 2026 (September 3rd).
• The launch of Savings Plus bonds worth 4 billion baht (September 4,000).
• The schedule includes announcements of the consumer confidence index, the investor confidence index, a summary of the stock market performance, the industrial confidence index, and international trade conditions, as well as the Constitutional Court's scheduled hearing on the barcode and QR code case on election ballots (September 28).
• The Bank of Thailand's Economic and Financial Situation Report (September 30)

while Foreign factors that must be followed namely

• The release of PMI indices for the US, China, the EU, and Japan's manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the Fed Beige Book report (morning of September 3).
• U.S. nonfarm payroll employment figures and unemployment rate (September 4).
• The third estimate of the EU's Q2 2026 GDP (September 7).

side Mr. Wacharen Jongyanyong, Director of Research at Globlex Securities. Investment recommendation: Top stock picks focusing on sectors benefiting from government subsidies for solar roofs, including GUNKUL, GULF SOLAR, COM7, KUMWEL, and ASEFA.

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