The game of closing the Strait of Hormuz is starting to go the US's way. Iran's oil exports have been disrupted, but Gulf nations are still able to export.

Iran's strategy of using the Strait of Hormuz to pressure global energy markets is losing ground after the United States continuously helped Gulf nations transport oil to the market. Meanwhile, the US Navy has been blocking Iranian oil exports from the Gulf since July, increasing domestic economic pressure and forcing Tehran to face a choice between returning to the negotiating table and escalating the conflict.

On September 5, 2569, Iran's attempts to use the Strait of Hormuz to pressure the global oil market began to face limitations. This was after the United States was able to help oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf transport large quantities of crude oil onto the market, despite continued drone and missile attacks from Iran. Meanwhile, Iran's own oil exports were heavily restricted.

A Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report indicates that the U.S. Navy has blocked Iran from exporting oil from the Persian Gulf since July. At the same time, the U.S. has also allowed some oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing global oil prices from rising to the level Iran had hoped for.

Data from TankerTrackers.com indicates that over the past 28 days, an average of approximately 5 million barrels of crude oil per day have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, almost all of which originates from countries other than Iran. Meanwhile, another approximately 2.5 million barrels per day have been exported through ports in the Gulf of Oman, including the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.

The amount of oil that can still be exported accounts for more than 40% of the region's pre-war transport levels, while global crude oil prices remain below $100 per barrel. Another factor that helped alleviate pressure on the market was China drawing oil from its domestic reserves and reducing imports.

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically important point for the energy market, as approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil was transported through it before the conflict. Iran therefore estimates that restricting shipping would have a significant impact on oil prices and the global economy, increasing pressure on the United States to negotiate.

However, Iran's ability to restrict shipping is not perfect, and the US blockade directly impacts Iran's oil export revenues, increasing domestic economic pressure.

The Iranian rial has depreciated, inflation is high, and gasoline shortages are frequent. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian stated that the country's trade volume has decreased by approximately 25-35%.

Other countries in the Persian Gulf are also affected by the conflict, particularly the transportation of liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, and other commodities, which remain restricted. The impact is more severe in countries that do not have alternative sea routes to replace the Strait of Hormuz.

Although Iran continues to attack US oil tankers and military bases, it has so far avoided large-scale attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Similarly, the US has also avoided direct attacks on major Iranian cities or their government leaders.

This situation presents Iran with a more difficult choice, as earlier assessments that the country could withstand severe economic pressure for about five months are now approaching its limit. Tehran may have to choose between returning to negotiations with the United States or escalating military operations to increase pressure on its adversary.

The US midterm elections in November are another significant factor, as Iran may see maintaining pressure on the energy markets until the elections as a way to exert political pressure on the US government. This means the risk of escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remains.

Reference: wsj.com

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