UOBAM increases its weighting in Thai stocks, projecting a best-case scenario where the SET index reaches 1,750 points by the end of the year.

UOB Asset Management is optimistic about Thai stocks, following continued recovery in listed companies' earnings and a return of foreign capital. They recommend increasing investment in Thai stocks by 30-40% of portfolios, forecasting a base case 1,650 points for the index and a best-case scenario of 1,750 points.

On September 9, 2026, Mr. Nattapol Chansivanan, Managing Director of UOB Asset Management (Thailand) or UOBAM, revealed that the Thai stock market is entering a critical turning point. This follows six consecutive quarters of growth in the earnings of listed companies, after facing pressure from a slowdown in corporate profits over the past three years.

The fact that the profits of listed companies have grown continuously for more than 6 quarters last occurred during 2553-2554 and 2546-2549, reflects that this profit recovery is significant for the Thai stock market.

Meanwhile, the earnings per share (EPS) of the Thai stock market has fluctuated around 90 baht over the past 10 years, but by 2569, there is a high probability that it will surpass 100 baht per share for the first time in many years. This profit recovery is also spread across many industries, not concentrated in just a few groups, such as the energy sector, which is being boosted by oil prices and petrochemical product price spreads.

Regarding the direction of the Thai stock market index by the end of 2026, UOBAM has three scenarios, giving the most weight to the base case at 1,650 points. This scenario assumes that the conflict between the US and Iran can be resolved by the end of the year, while the government can overcome political risks and maintain stability.

The best-case scenario (bull case) projects the index to reach 1,750 points if the war between the US and Iran ends quickly, oil prices fall rapidly, domestic investment meets expectations, and the government remains highly stable.

In the worst-case scenario, the index is estimated at 1,540 points if the US-Iran conflict drags on, keeping oil prices at high levels and impacting domestic consumption, coupled with government stability issues.

In terms of industry drivers, UOBAM believes the energy and utilities sector has the potential to benefit from the new draft Power Development Plan (PDP). Currently, Thailand has a power generation capacity of approximately 54 gigawatts (GW) and aims to increase it to 250 GW by 2593, which will require significant investment. The focus will be on clean energy, including solar and wind power, while natural gas will remain the primary energy source.

The banking sector is beginning to see signs of recovery, with loan growth returning to positive territory in the latest quarter. The majority of loans are concentrated in large corporate clients, particularly data center projects, where Thai banks account for 70-80% of their lending. Overall loan growth for the year is projected to be around 3% (plus or minus).

While industrial estate groups have benefited from the relocation of production bases by foreign investors, particularly those from Taiwan who have invested in the electronics and data center industries in Thailand.

Furthermore, we are beginning to see foreign capital (fund flows) shifting away from technology stocks towards traditional economy stocks (Old Economy). The Thai stock market has a strength in its relatively high proportion of stocks in the banking and energy sectors.

However, the overall Thai economy still exhibits a K-shaped recovery pattern, where large corporations continue to grow well, while households and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) continue to face pressure from high levels of debt.

Regarding the policy interest rate outlook, UOBAM expects the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to maintain its policy interest rate at 1.00% this year. However, they anticipate a possible one-time rate cut next year to alleviate the burden on households and SMEs, even though the Thai economy continues to expand.

Regarding investment strategy, UOBAM recommends allocating approximately 30–40% of the total stock portfolio to Thai stocks, combining dividend-paying or income-generating stocks with growth stocks to increase portfolio resilience in volatile market conditions.

The UOBSDF fund focuses on investing in high-dividend-yielding stocks, with approximately 40% allocated to the banking sector. It aims for a dividend yield of around 6-7% per year and employs an active management approach to adjust the stock allocation based on seasonal dividend payments.

While the TEF fund is an all-cap fund that adjusts its weightings between large, mid, and small-cap stocks to capture opportunities in growth stocks that benefit from investments in data centers and the electronics components industry.

Currently, UOBAM offers three flagship Thai equity funds: Dividend funds (through the SDF fund), Overall funds (through the TEF fund), and Value funds, to support different investment strategies depending on market conditions.

Read all news related to the Thai stock market situation here.