UBS estimates that Swiss companies could benefit by up to $2 billion from the return of U.S. import tariffs after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Trump's previous tariff measures.
On September 10, 2026, at 4:02 PM, Bloomberg News reported that Swiss companies could benefit up to $2 billion from the return of U.S. import tariffs after the tariffs previously imposed by President Donald Trump were overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court, according to economists at UBS.
UBS states that the potentially largest tax refunds will come from goods exported from Switzerland to the United States between April 2568 and February 2569, particularly high-precision instruments, medical equipment, and watches, while the majority of the remainder will come from coffee, machinery, and electrical equipment.
However, UBS warns that Swiss exporters may not receive the full refund, as, in principle, the right to a tax refund belongs to the US importer, not the direct exporter.
Looking ahead, UBS forecasts that the U.S. headline tariff on Swiss goods will increase from the current 12.5% to 15%, in line with the framework trade agreement reached by both countries in November.
Meret Mukeli, an economist at UBS, stated that the actual average tax rate is significantly lower than that level, currently around 6%, because pharmaceutical products, Switzerland's most important export, are largely tax-exempt.
Regarding economic trends, UBS believes that Switzerland's 1.5% economic growth in the second quarter may portray the economy as stronger than its true fundamentals, even though the figure still reflects signs of a stronger recovery.
Alessandro B., an economist at UBS, said the growth figures looked a little too high and might not fully reflect the real economic situation, but at the same time, there were signs of recovery beginning to appear.
For 2570, UBS forecasts that Switzerland's unemployment rate will fall, inflation will remain below 1%, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will begin its first interest rate hike in mid-year, although there remains a risk that policymakers may start raising rates sooner than expected.
The SNB is scheduled to hold its third monetary policy meeting of the year at the end of September, and the market will be watching for signals regarding the direction of interest rates, amidst signs of economic recovery and continued low inflationary pressures.
Reference: bloomberg.com
Read news related to All European economic situations can be found here.
