Analyzing the Thai Stock Market Crisis: The Lost Decade – Dr. Nivesh Reveals Strategy of Holding a Strong Cash Portfolio, Pointing Out that AI Has IQ but Loses to EQ – Long-Term Investment is Key.
The Thai stock market is facing a "lost decade" due to the aging population crisis and political instability. Dr. Nives reveals that he has been holding cash for over 5 years because there are no high-quality, undervalued stocks to invest in. He points out that in the AI-dominated era, emotional intelligence (EQ) is key for long-term holdings (10 years). He warns against panicking about the disruptive technology affecting medical and programmer professions, and outlines criteria for selecting stocks to compete in the market, focusing on buying essential consumer goods stocks necessary for daily life should a stock market crash exceeding 50% occur.
September 12, 2026 – Dr. Niwes Hemvachiravarakorn, a value investor (VI), revealed his perspective on the Thai stock market and signs of an economic crisis in a presentation titled "VI: What's Next? A Day of Hoping for a Crisis, But No Longer Occurring," at MONEY FEST 2569 organized by Thairath Money. He stated that a stock market crisis occurs when stock prices fall sharply by more than 20-30%, which has not yet happened, even though many investors are waiting for it. He further explained that historically, crises rarely give advance warning; if warnings appear, they are usually not crises. True crises typically occur when the investment atmosphere is at its peak, and people are actively trading stocks without any prior warning.
Currently, the Thai stock market, despite the index hovering around 1,600 points and high trading volume, is experiencing panic among investors. Only a few stocks have risen by nearly 30% recently, while the majority of stocks, especially those held by retail investors, have either remained stagnant or declined to the point where they are unsaleable. The Thai stock market is thus in a "Lost Decade," where investors have received significantly lower returns compared to the past.
Dr. Niwet pointed out that the main reason for the stagnation of the Thai economy and stock market over the past decade stems from structural problems in both politics and economics. However, a more severe and long-term impactful factor than politics is the demographic issue. Currently, Thailand has an average age of 42 years and is rapidly moving towards an aging society due to younger generations choosing not to have children. This results in a shortage of young people to fill the workforce. At the same time, the efficiency of existing workers is not increasing or is declining due to their increasing age, while most of the manufacturing and agricultural sectors still rely on traditional labor.
“Thailand’s stock market has stagnated for over 10 years. Ten years ago, the index was at 1,700 points, but today it’s at 1,600 points, below its starting point. Therefore, investments through mutual funds haven’t generated higher returns,” said Dr. Niwes, adding that he estimates the difficulties in the Thai stock market won’t end in just 3-5 years, but will drag on for 10 years. He suggests a similar pattern to Japan, which faced an aging society and a prolonged stock market stagnation for over 30 years before recovering through changes in its governance and administrative structure.
The "undervalued stock" screening process: distinguishing promising businesses from price traps.
With the Thai stock index below its levels 10 years ago, many stocks are undervalued and trading below their book value. However, Dr. Nives warns that cheap stocks don't always mean they are worth buying. Investors must distinguish between "stocks that are cheap because the business is declining" and "stocks that are cheap but the business is still growing."
Currently, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Thailand are facing a continuous decline because they cannot compete with the influx of cheap, low-quality goods from China. This has resulted in a steadily decreasing value of their businesses, turning them into undervalued stocks that are unattractive to investors and may eventually plummet to zero. Meanwhile, only large companies are managing to stay afloat.
For a checklist to select fundamentally sound stocks, Dr. Nives has provided guidelines for considering the business itself, by evaluating:
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- Are the company's products still selling and are sales showing an upward trend?
- The business is continuously expanding its branches, and are those branches performing well in terms of sales?
- Do the revenues and profits grow every year, and does the company pay high and consistent dividends?
“If a business performs well, revenue increases, profits grow continuously, and dividends are paid well, even if the share price is not good today, the share price will eventually improve in line with the financial performance,” Dr. Niwes stated, emphasizing that there are only a small group of stocks worth buying in the Thai stock market, approximately 20-30 or no more than 50. As for small-cap stocks with unclear business models, investors should avoid trading them based on rumors as there is a high chance of getting stuck with losses.
Furthermore, regarding investing through mutual funds, Dr. Niwes believes that choosing a fund to invest in is not just about selecting a fund manager. Investors must also consider which country the fund represents. If it's a Thai equity fund, where the population is declining and performance isn't growing, generating returns will be difficult. Therefore, investors should consider investing in funds that represent countries with clear economic growth prospects, such as the United States or Vietnam.
The AI vs. Human Battlefield: IQ Loses to EQ in the World of Long-Term Investment.
As we enter an era where artificial intelligence (AI) plays a significant role, Dr. Niwes analyzed the application of AI in stock analysis. He acknowledged that AI possesses a very high level of IQ, or intellectual intelligence, capable of passing medical or engineering exams and having the ability to analyze and process data, selecting the top 10 stocks in various markets around the world faster and more accurately than humans.
However, Dr. Niwes points out that investment success doesn't depend solely on intellectual intelligence (IQ), but also on emotional intelligence (EQ), a crucial factor that AI currently lacks. AI doesn't experience feelings like greed, panic, or shock during crises or stock market crashes, while humans with high EQ in investing can patiently hold stocks for the long term without panicking.
"Investing requires both IQ and EQ. High-IQ individuals who focus on short-term trading may not be able to compete against AI that is more analytical. But what AI lacks is EQ; it doesn't panic. Therefore, those with good EQ in investing are the winners in the stock market," said Dr. Nives.
Dr. Niwes confirms that the Value Investing (VI) style, specifically the rule of holding stocks for 10 years or more, remains effective. Almost all of his current stocks have been held for at least 10-20 years. The key is careful consideration and analysis before making a purchase decision, selecting only companies with promising futures, good profits, and safeguards against technological disruption leading to failure. Once a suitable price is chosen, the company is allowed to grow without frequent trading or switching stocks.
The myth of AI disrupting careers: Lessons from history and the survival of professions.
Dr. Niwes views the fear that AI will take over and destroy various professions within 3-4 years as something that needs careful consideration and that we shouldn't panic excessively. While there are predictions that doctors, software engineers, and programmers will disappear because AI can perform surgery and write programs better, in reality, AI still has physical limitations and cannot be guaranteed complete success.
Based on observations and data from other countries, Dr. Niwet found that the demand for programmers is increasing. This is because employers need to hire skilled programmers to command and control the operation of AI. Similarly, in the medical profession, the use of AI for preliminary health checks has led to increased health awareness and a rise in visits to hospitals for treatment, as AI cannot administer injections or perform actual medical procedures.
This case is similar to a lesson from history when computer systems were first introduced. It was predicted that paper for printing reports would disappear, but the actual result was that paper usage increased tenfold, and paper manufacturers continue to do well in the market even today.
However, Dr. Niwes acknowledges that some business sectors have been severely impacted, such as content creators and influencers who produce videos, because AI can instantly create beautiful avatars and videos. The survival strategy for this group is to shift from being entirely self-producers to becoming "thinkers" who direct AI to perform the tasks.
Regarding the educational path for the next generation, Dr. Niwet suggests that they can continue studying in traditional fields such as medicine or engineering as usual, but they must add skills in applying AI as a supplementary tool in their work to gain a competitive advantage in the future.
Strategy for holding a tight cash portfolio: Wait to buy "essential goods" stocks when the market plummets 50%.
Over the years, Dr. Niwes has revealed that he has consistently held a very high proportion of cash in his investment portfolio for more than five years. He clarified that this cash holding was not solely due to a desire to weather a crisis, but rather because he was unable to find high-quality, high-growth value stocks at reasonable prices. He explained that high-growth stocks were often overpriced, while undervalued stocks were usually in underperforming businesses.
"If I find a stock that I clearly see as good and am confident will win, I'll buy it. But over the past five years, there haven't been any stocks I wanted to invest in because they were all too risky. We don't do anything we're not confident about, so we have to keep cash on hand and wait for opportunities," said Dr. Nives.
Regarding portfolio management strategies in the event of a 30-50% stock market crash, Dr. Nives stated that price declines alone cannot be used as the sole criterion for making buying decisions. He cited the example of the 2000 tech stock crisis, where Amazon's stock plummeted by 95%. He argued that if investors had bought during the initial 30% drop, they would have suffered significant losses due to the further price decline.
Therefore, if a crisis occurs causing stock prices to plummet by 50%, the only type of stock Dr. Nives would be willing to "pour all his money" into is one in the basic consumer goods sector essential for daily life (the four basic necessities), such as food or household goods that everyone needs to eat and use every day. These companies have consistent revenue and profits, can control the domestic market, and pay dividends regularly. This is because businesses in this sector have very low risk; regardless of crises or disruption by AI technology, humans will still need to consume these goods. In contrast, technology stocks or stocks that claim to use AI, if their prices fall by 50%, could potentially decline further due to the volatility and uncertainty of the business.
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